The warming in Armenia-Turkey-Armenia relations could strengthen Ankara’s regional influence and, at the same time, partially reduce Yerevan’s dependence on Russia, but this process will be limited by Moscow’s influence.
“Elchi” reports that this was noted in a report by the “Stratfor” analytical center.
According to analysts, in recent years, Armenia and Turkey have made attempts to normalize relations after long-standing tensions, especially against the backdrop of Azerbaijan taking full control over Karabakh:
“At the same time, Yerevan is striving to gain greater independence from Russia and develop broader political, economic, and military ties with the West.”
“Stratfor” notes that the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey could strengthen Ankara’s position as a regional “middle player” connecting Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, and could also partially weaken Iran’s influence in the region:
“For Armenia, this could mean the expansion of trade routes and access to Western markets, as well as the diversification of foreign economic relations.
At the same time, Russia remains the main factor limiting the depth of rapprochement in relations with both countries. If Armenia moves too close to Turkey and the West, Moscow may use economic leverage.”
The report additionally stated that the possible opening of the Armenia-Turkey border could depend on internal political processes in Armenia and the results of upcoming elections.