Economists and climate experts warn that the increasingly likely “Super El Niño” could have a severe impact on global agricultural production, potentially triggering a new wave of food price increases that could last for years. If climate-related production losses combine with geopolitical tensions, low-income countries are expected to bear the brunt of the burden.
elchi reports that a warning based on assessments from economic circles in the British newspaper “The Guardian” indicates that the world may face not only heatwaves over the next two years but also the economic consequences arising for global food markets. Recent analyses by international financial institutions, meteorologists, and climate researchers contain similar warnings. According to scientists, El Niño, which develops with an extraordinary rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, could fundamentally alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. Wheat, rice, corn
Recent forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that the event that could occur in 2026-2027 may be one of the strongest El Niño events in recent years. Therefore, some researchers unofficially call this process “Super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño.” Experts state that such a strong climate event will increase the risk of flooding in South America and drought in parts of South Africa and Asia. This could lead to significant fluctuations in the production of wheat, rice, corn, sugarcane, coffee, and cocoa.
Prices are under pressure
The most important point highlighted by economists is that the impact will not be limited to harvest periods alone. Due to the fact that agricultural production cycles occur at different times, the effects of the climate shock are expected to gradually reflect on the global food chain. Therefore, it is estimated that price pressure could be felt until the second half of 2028. Goldman Sachs’ analyses show a twofold increase in global agricultural commodity prices, while Unicredit’s scenarios predict that extreme weather events could cause hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses in global agricultural production. It is stated that price increases could be more acute, especially for products such as rice, coffee, sugar, and palm oil.
War and climate
Analysts emphasize that climate-related risks should not be viewed in isolation. It is noted that the recent rise in energy, fertilizer, and logistics costs due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is already putting pressure on food markets. A strong El Niño could add a second shock to this existing pressure. Even small-scale disruptions in agricultural production can lead to larger-than-expected price spikes due to the inelastic demand for basic food products.
The risk is in poor countries
According to climate experts, developing countries will be more affected by this process. Problems with access to fertilizers, dependent food systems, and limited economic resources are expected to increase the risk of food insecurity in parts of Africa and Asia. In particular, it is reported that irregularities in monsoon rains could put rice and sugar production in India and palm oil production in Southeast Asia under pressure. Experts also note that El Niño could increase costs by affecting not only agriculture but also river transport, port operations, and global supply chains.
Concerns are growing
Strong El Niño events that occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24 caused droughts, floods, heatwaves, and losses in agricultural production worldwide. The World Meteorological Organization and numerous climate studies share the view that the economic consequences of future strong El Niño events could be even more severe due to the effects of global warming.
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