Gudrat Hasanguliyev: “Continuing the war could put an end to the existence of the Russian state”
Gudrat Hasanguliyev, Chairman of the Justice, Law, Democracy (AHD) Party and Member of Parliament, answered questions in an interview with “AzPolitika” regarding the situation in Russia after the expansion of Ukrainian drone strikes, the dangers awaiting the current government, the prospects of the Iran-US military confrontation, and the processes within that country.
We present the interview:
– Gudrat bey, thank you for the interview. My first question concerns the situation in Russian society resulting from the strikes by Ukrainian unmanned systems. The country has lost 40 percent of its oil refining enterprises, fuel shortages are deepening, and oligarchs and some government officials are already making statements about the necessity of stopping the war. Do you think the Putin administration will listen to these calls, or will it take steps toward mobilizing greater force against Ukraine – such as mobilization, adopting war laws, etc.?
– For the government in Russia, both exiting the war and continuing it are dangerous. It is dangerous to exit because if it is difficult to present the results of the war to the people as a victory, a revolution could occur in the country. History shows this. Continuing the war is dangerous because Ukraine is acquiring modern weapons, striking Russia’s strategic facilities, and the economy is not capable of covering the increasing military expenses.
The conditions that Ukraine is currently ready to accept for a ceasefire may not be available in the future. In that case, the results of the war could call into question Russia’s existence as a unified state. Therefore, I think that common sense will prevail, Russia will choose the less dangerous option, and will stop the war.
– The decisions made at the NATO summit show that the United States and Europe will be determined to support Ukraine militarily and economically. We read about France’s position on transferring the most modern fighters and air defense systems to Ukraine, and other European countries will also take steps in this direction. How can this support affect the fate of the war?
– I have always been of the opinion that the West, especially the US, could have prevented this war if it had wanted to. If modern weapons had been provided to Ukraine in time, it would have been possible to accelerate the end of the war. If Russia is convinced that it cannot achieve everything it wants in the war, it may be satisfied with what it has gained and stop the war. Everything will depend on the scale of the aid provided to Ukraine.
– International media writes that China is already working on scenarios for replacing Putin. Undoubtedly, the West also has some plans in this direction. It is logical that great powers are looking for support within the Russian government to implement their plans. In this regard, is a silent coup in the Kremlin possible by the end of the year?
– At the moment, this probability is very low. But if the war continues and Russia faces heavy losses on the front, nothing can be ruled out. Undoubtedly, Putin is also thinking about this. The next 6 months in the war will clarify many issues.
– Gudrat bey, President Ilham Aliyev also said in his response to a question from Dmitri Gordon at the Shusha Global Media Forum that he advised Russia on the necessity of stopping the war in time. We heard Peskov’s statement: “We will continue to explain to some of our partners that this position is wrong in all directions.” What can you say about this?
– True friends and partners should tell each other the truth. Ilham Aliyev is also telling the truth to his partners in Russia, asking them to respect international law. There is no need for Peskov to explain anything to us; we know the principles of international law and we see what is happening.
Russia’s state interests require the war to be stopped. Continuing the war by showing arrogance and stubbornness could put an end to the existence of the Russian state, at least in its current form. We need stability and prosperity in neighboring countries.
– The Iran-US military confrontation continues. You previously predicted that military operations would continue when commenting on the memorandum of understanding signed in Vienna. What does this trend promise, and with what result can the military operations end? Can the parties sit down at the negotiating table again?
– Iran is facing the US’s massive military machine. The continuation of the war could lead to dire consequences for Iran. Iran should reach an agreement with the US, abandon its nuclear program, restore the previous rules in the Strait of Hormuz, have the sanctions imposed on Iran lifted, and receive investments.
If Iran continues the war, the country could face a great catastrophe. This is not needed by anyone, especially us. Since neither side considers itself defeated, it is quite difficult to achieve peace at the moment. If Iran’s strategic facilities are hit, it will be forced to go to peace on harsher terms. If the people in Iran defend the president they elected and the army shows support for the president, it will be possible to achieve a fairer peace. Delaying reforms in Iran and remaining tied to old foreign policy does not promise anything good for the country. The final say in Iran should belong to the President and parliament elected by the people.
– Can the European Union and NATO provide open military support to the US? We have witnessed the UK declaring the IRGC a terrorist organization in recent days. President Trump also expressed serious dissatisfaction with his allies at the NATO summit. What do you expect?
– After a fatwa was issued regarding the killing of Western leaders, France and the UK could support the US. Considering that the imposition of duties by Iran on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz affects the interests of Western countries, I consider this entirely possible. Even if they do not like Trump, the defeat of the US does not serve the interests of the Western world.