Despite the expectation that “shut-in” volumes will average 1.4 million b/d in the fourth quarter and that total production will return to previous levels in the first quarter of 2027, global oil production and trade will return to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026.
“Elchi” reports that this is according to the monthly report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Oil production in Middle Eastern countries decreased to 8.3 million b/d in June after reaching a maximum reduction of 11.2 million b/d in May against the backdrop of the conflict. In particular, the administration believes that following the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire memorandum between the US and Iran, the volumes “shut-in” in the Persian Gulf will decrease to 8.3 million b/d in June compared to the peak of 11.2 million b/d in May.
In 2026, global hydrocarbon production will decrease by 4.23 million b/d, rather than the 7.1 million b/d estimated a month ago. Experts now believe that global supplies in 2026 will decrease from 106.12 million b/d to 101.89 million b/d.
The Energy Information Administration stated that in 2027, global supply will increase by almost 8 million b/d to reach 109.84 million b/d (the previous report expected an increase of 10.3 million b/d to 109.3 million b/d).