Qüdrət Həsənquliyev: “They want to turn Armenia into a great power in this region, like Israel…”
“There are forces and countries that want us to be in a state of conflict with Russia”
At a time when tensions in world politics have reached their peak, the unexpected and closed-door visit of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director to Moscow has raised major questions. These secret contacts between Washington and the Kremlin are directly linked to the recent escalation on the Ukrainian front, the crisis surrounding Iran, and the global competition between the West and China.
So, what awaits the region in the behind-the-scenes bargaining of the great powers? How can the current landscape on the Baku-Moscow line be assessed? What consequences can Yerevan’s moves to gain time in the peace process and the deepening power struggle in the region lead to?
All these questions are answered by the chairman of the Justice, Law, and Democracy Party, Member of Parliament Qüdrət Həsənquliyev in an interview with “AzPolitika”.
– Qüdrət bey, according to information released today, the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has arrived in Moscow and held closed-door meetings with the Russian leadership. Various versions are being voiced regarding the topics of discussion. According to claims, negotiations between Russia and the US regarding the Iran war or the proposal of a certain agreement on the Ukraine issue could be on the agenda. In your opinion, which direction is the main probability related to?
– For Trump to win the midterm elections to be held on November 3, he needs a serious success in foreign policy. For this, he must either achieve a noticeable victory in Iran or succeed in signing a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. Currently, neither of these seems realistic. In such a case, it seems very difficult for him to receive serious support from the population in the midterm election. Sufficiently deep problems have also arisen in relations with allies. Both with Europe and in relations with Canada, one of the US’s close allies. Trump has achieved some success in Venezuela. But the result achieved in Venezuela seems quite small against the backdrop of other problems. The price of oil has risen, and America’s national debt has already exceeded 40 trillion dollars. In this regard, serious political difficulties await Trump in the coming period.
– So, the main topic of the US-Russia negotiations is Ukraine…
– It has probably been told to Russia that the continuation of the war strengthens China, and this does not serve Russia’s strategic interests at all. In the current situation, China sells its industrial products to Russia at favorable prices and buys raw materials from Russia at favorable prices. The continuation of the current situation does not allow the West, that is, the US and the European Union, South Korea, Japan, etc., to pursue a tougher policy regarding China.
In this regard, I think the US message to Russia could be approximately as follows: Russia should not hinder the taking of steps that will allow Trump to succeed in the elections. You must either support us in the Iran issue or not allow the Ukraine war to drag on. I think the main topic of discussion could be this. Because Trump’s defeat promises nothing good for Russia.
– And how do you view the course of the war? We see that longer-range and more destructive weapons are being used. Elections will be held in Russia next month. At the same time, internal political processes have become active in Ukraine. In your opinion, what does such a deepening of escalation promise for both Russia and Ukraine?
– Russia has large reserves of raw materials, and let’s be frank, China, North Korea, and other countries cooperate closely with it. China made an open statement some time ago that we will not reconcile with Russia’s defeat. They believe that achieving a ceasefire along the current front line means Russia’s defeat. Whereas approximately 20 percent of Ukraine’s territories are currently under Russian occupation. It is difficult for Russia to go for peace without China’s consent. China wants the US to reach an agreement with it. Therefore, how the war will end and what geopolitical consequences it will cause will depend on the agreement between the great powers themselves.
– Why can’t America reach an agreement with China?
– Because the parties’ positions are different on the Taiwan issue. After the collapse of the USSR, a unipolar world was created. Now, China feels its economic and military power, stands face-to-face with the US on certain issues as the second largest global power, and demands that its interests be taken into account.
– Are any changes expected within Russia? They did not allow liberal forces into the election. The government is carrying out a total surveillance campaign, and numerous restrictions have been imposed by laws. Russia has already become a dangerous pole as a state and society, and the ideologies nurtured by the government pose a serious threat both to itself and to its surroundings…
– Until Russia is defeated in the war, it is impossible for the people to become a serious political factor in any form. They understand in the Kremlin that if there is a defeat, it will be impossible to prevent the collapse of the country. In that regard, they are continuing the war, and the fact that “Yabloko” candidates were not allowed into the election is to prevent the topic of peace from becoming the main issue during the election campaign.
If the West gives Ukraine modern weapons and missiles with greater destructive power and higher precision, or transfers the technology for manufacturing those missiles, then, of course, the situation will change fundamentally. Currently, Russia’s situation is not so critical that it would stop the war. Russia believes that the West will retreat and will eventually force Ukraine to make more serious concessions.
– Qüdrət bey, there are also versions that the CIA director’s secret visit to Russia is related to Russia preparing some military operations against Europe. These days, Western media writes that the Baltic countries are already seriously preparing for war. Barriers are being built, fortifications are being set up, and mines are being laid. Anxiety is also growing in Eastern Europe. Is there such a possibility that Russia wants to open a new front against the West, and then start a ceasefire or peace negotiations?
– It is considered unlikely. Nothing can be unequivocally excluded in politics, but this probability is quite low. Because waging war in Ukraine is one thing, and starting any military operation against Poland or the Baltic countries is another. In such a case, NATO countries will join the war against Russia. In this case, Russia has no chance of winning that war. Why would Russia start such a war? This could turn into the logic of “I will destroy myself, and you with me.” If nuclear weapons are used, in such a situation, will the people who started and continue the war against NATO, their families, children, and loved ones survive?
Therefore, I do not think that Russia will go for such a war now. But often Russia does not make decisions based on logic. I also did not think that Russia would start a large-scale war against Ukraine. Because I could forecast what consequences this could cause for Russia.
I think that Russia is now just putting pressure on European countries, trying to intimidate them, and wants them to force Ukraine to make certain concessions and not help it. Russia is worried about modern technologies being given to Ukraine.
Great Britain has already announced that information regarding the technology of long-range SCALP missiles will be given to Ukraine. Tomorrow, the situation regarding “Tomahawk” missiles may also change. If Trump loses the majority in Congress in the midterm election, his ability to defend Russia will weaken significantly. It seems to me that the main topic of the negotiations is related to this. As a result of the war with Iran, the US must achieve a certain result. Trump is at least trying to return the legal regime of the Strait of Hormuz to its previous state.
– In that case, another question arises: will Iran go for this? That is, will it take this step under pressure from Russia?
– This is another matter. Iran always takes the Russian factor into account in its foreign policy. Because Russia’s influence on Iran’s internal politics is great. This also stems from genetic memory. If China promises serious support to Iran, Iran may take a risk and not take Russia’s opinion into account. That is why the US cannot end the war with Iran and is resorting to all options. Without winning on the battlefield, it is difficult to achieve great successes through diplomatic channels. We know this from our own experience. If the IRGC and Iran’s religious leadership support Pezeshkian’s political line, Iran can emerge from the war with dignity and choose a successful path of development.
– Qüdrət bey, Russia’s policy regarding Azerbaijan and Armenia is also on the agenda. How would you characterize Baku-Moscow relations: bad, good, or excellent?
– Although relations are not as good as desired, I would not call them bad either. Relations can be called bad when states already make concrete decisions against each other and take real steps. I always say that we must avoid confrontation with Russia on the condition of protecting the prestige and sovereignty of the state. We must convince Russia to allow Armenia to go for peace. There are many forces and countries in the near and far abroad that want us to be in a state of conflict with Russia. Azerbaijan’s situation is as follows: one group of people is dissatisfied with us, asking why you behave like this with Russia; one group of people is dissatisfied with why you are getting closer to Israel; another group of people is very dissatisfied with why you are getting closer to Iran. Azerbaijan must always keep state interests at the forefront in its foreign policy. I believe that President Ilham Aliyev is continuing this policy quite successfully and has already made many forces accept that Azerbaijan will act based on its own interests.
We need Russia’s support for the signing of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It does not seem very convincing for Armenia to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan without Moscow’s blessing. The fact that the results of the election were not announced immediately in the last elections held in Armenia revealed that Pashinyan “tampered” with the results; he could have obtained a Constitutional majority, but he did not. Because he knows that Russia is not interested in signing a peace treaty and opening the Zangezur corridor. By demanding that Pashinyan hold a referendum regarding the foreign policy course, Russia makes it difficult for him to hold a referendum regarding the Constitutional change. On the other hand, this is a message to the West that “you see, I can no longer hold a referendum.” To go to a referendum in Armenia, a decision must be made in parliament. Moscow is also planning something by demanding a referendum.
– But yesterday he had ex-president Kocharyan arrested…
– With this, Pashinyan sends a message to Russia: “You use me for your own interests, and at the same time you keep Kocharyan as a means of pressure against me, there is no need for this.” Kocharyan and Sargsyan are indeed people involved in corruption; they must be convicted for military and crimes against humanity. Azerbaijan must demand these criminals from Armenia. God is punishing them, but it would be better if we punished them ourselves.
Pashinyan is currently playing a game skillfully. But one day these games will come to an end. With the current arrests, Pashinyan can also tell the West: “I need an extra 6-7 votes to get a decision made in parliament to go to a referendum, I am intimidating those on the other side, and as a result of pressure, I will be able to get 6-7 votes from there.” Pashinyan must disclose the draft Constitution to the public by the end of the year. But then the matter must come to parliament.
I should also note that America is building EU-technology centers in Armenia. Many startups will be financed there, and many things will be done. Certain circles have been operating in this direction for a long time. They want to turn Armenia into a great power in this region, like Israel. They think that they can take certain steps against Azerbaijan in the future. Over time, Azerbaijan’s oil will run out, Turkey can be drawn into a conflict with Israel or another state and weakened, etc.
– Do you expect a war between Turkey and Israel?
– Sometimes countries are drawn into conflicts they do not want. They wanted to draw Turkey into a war with Russia, Greece, and Saudi Arabia, and now they want to draw it into a war with Israel. There are forces that do not want Turkey to strengthen. Although Israel is a small state, it possesses capabilities that some large states do not have. It has its own defense system and nuclear weapons. They can indeed put Turkey in a great danger. Many do not take this seriously, but I think the signing of an agreement on military cooperation and mutual defense between Pakistan and Turkey, together with Saudi Arabia, stems precisely from this concern.
That is, Pakistan’s nuclear weapon acts as a deterrent factor and can prevent Israel from using nuclear weapons. But will Pakistan be able to keep nuclear warheads in Turkey or Saudi Arabia? Will Turkey have the opportunity to use that weapon together with Pakistan? Only in this case can Pakistan’s nuclear weapon be a real deterrent factor.
Until Turkey acquires its own nuclear weapons, it must pursue a more cautious policy and avoid any confrontation with both Greece and Israel to the maximum extent. In 2015, a plane incident occurred between Turkey and Russia. After that, serious tension arose in relations. Azerbaijan also played a major role in overcoming that tension. Such confrontations can create heavy consequences for Turkey as well as for the region. Taking this into account, Azerbaijan is trying to play a certain role in improving relations between brotherly Turkey and friendly Israel.
– Let’s return to the peace treaty issue. It turns out that regional forces do not want this, so how do you see the perspective?
– I believe that Azerbaijan and its partners must put maximum pressure on Armenia, and at the same time, we must conduct negotiations with Russia. I always say: as long as we are strong, we must strive for the signing of a peace treaty. We must strive to always be superior to Armenia in economic indicators. Economic freedoms must be expanded, and borders must be opened so that our economy strengthens even more.
It is possible to create a new Eurasian Union between China and the European Union with the participation of former Soviet republics, Turkey, and Iran. A single currency, a common market, a single customs and visa system, etc. Currently, our borders are closed. Azerbaijanis have difficulty maintaining contact with their compatriots in Georgia and Iran. In terms of protecting our moral and national unity, it is important to have the opportunity for free movement. This is also necessary for our security.
Of course, the opening of borders may cause certain financial losses for Azerbaijan in the initial stage due to some daily consumer goods and healthcare services being cheaper in neighboring countries, but the way out of this is to implement economic reforms. Our country must be attractive for foreign investments.
Judicial reforms must be expanded to ensure the inviolability of property. It would be more appropriate for all disputes related to business activities, including disputes arising between an entrepreneur and a state body, to be heard in a commercial court, not in an administrative court. As a pilot project, cases in commercial courts should be heard with the application of the jury institution. For example, Azerbaijani entrepreneurs should have the opportunity to apply to foreign arbitration to resolve disputes among themselves. Why not allow this? If companies think that they want to resolve the dispute in foreign arbitration, not in Azerbaijan, legal opportunity must be created for this.