The International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia will continue to develop under the influence of favorable economic growth factors.
elchi reports that this was noted in the IMF’s updated global economic forecast.
According to the report, economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia region will weaken sharply to 0.7% in 2026, and will rise to 6.5% in 2027. This represents a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points for 2026 and an upward revision of 1.9 percentage points for 2027 compared to the April forecast.
The IMF attributed this to the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for longer than previously anticipated, followed by a stronger recovery in economic activity.
According to the Fund’s assessment, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, which are commodity exporters most affected by disruptions in energy production and transportation, will experience economic contraction in 2026 and record double-digit growth in 2027.
Saudi Arabia is expected to be relatively less affected by this process due to its more diversified export routes. Economic growth in the country is projected to be 1.7% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.
As for Iran, the economic growth forecast for 2026 has been improved by 0.7 percentage points compared to April, rising to negative 5.4%. This is attributed to better-than-expected oil export results in March-April and the easing of some restrictions on the country’s exports. At the same time, the forecast for 2027 has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points.
The IMF added that energy-importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa will remain relatively resilient despite pressures from high energy and food prices.