“Fitch Solutions” company’s BMI research division forecasts economic growth in Azerbaijan to be 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027.
elchi reports that this was stated in the company’s report on Azerbaijan.
According to the report, Azerbaijan’s economy is estimated to have grown by 1.4% in 2025. Thus, BMI expects economic growth to be 1.1 percentage points higher in 2026.
BMI believes that the expansion of investments and exports will mainly contribute to the acceleration of economic growth in Azerbaijan. Increased demand for alternative energy suppliers in Europe will support Azerbaijan’s revenues from energy exports.
The report notes that despite the decrease in oil production, rising global energy prices and increased European demand for Azerbaijani gas can positively impact export revenues, state finances, and foreign economic balance indicators.
According to BMI, based on indicators as of February 2026, oil production in Azerbaijan has decreased by approximately 8% since the beginning of the year. Analysts attribute this to the increased operational life of oil fields and limitations in production capacity.
However, the company emphasizes that the gas sector creates more favorable prospects for economic growth. Expansion of exports through the Southern Gas Corridor and high energy prices are assessed as factors supporting state revenues and investments.
BMI believes that the impact of positive changes in the energy sector on overall economic growth will be observed with some delay. Nevertheless, the economy’s structural dependence on the hydrocarbon sector will continue to limit medium-term growth potential.
According to the company’s forecast, real GDP growth in Azerbaijan will be 3% in 2028, 3.3% in 2029, and 3.4% in 2030.