Global trade growth may slow to 2.2% in 2026 after US tariff restrictions take full effect.
According to Elchi.az, referring to TASS, this information is included in the UN report “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026”.
The authors of the report note that global trade remained stable in 2025, with its volume estimated to increase by 3.8%, despite increasing uncertainty in trade policy and higher US tariffs. A weakening of dynamics is expected in 2026: according to calculations, after the effect of accelerating supplies decreases and tariff restrictions take full effect, global trade growth will slow to 2.2%.
UN experts noted that in 2025, growth was supported by strong merchandise trade, along with accelerated shipments due to the expected introduction of new tariffs, as well as a steady dynamic expansion of trade in services, especially in the field of tourism, digital services and professional services.
“Although tariffs and other protectionist measures disrupt the international trade environment and increase uncertainty, global integration remains deep; trade in goods and services still accounts for more than 50% of global GDP,” UN experts noted.
According to the report, structural changes are reshaping global trade against the background of short-term volatility. Companies are diversifying supply chains, relocating production, expanding “South-South” trade relations, and rapid digitalization and technological innovation are driving the growth of services provided using digital technologies.
In general, the authors of the report associate the changes with the gradual transformation of global trade.
“It’s not just about fragmentation. Competing factors continue to affect the outlook: the situation may worsen due to a resurgence of trade tensions, but it may also improve due to the easing of trade disputes and the strengthening of regional integration initiatives that could strengthen trade and investment flows,” UN experts added.